Séminaire : Daniel Befort (Oxford University): How to obtain skillful, reliable and seamless climate information beyond decadal time scales?
Tuesday 26 January 2021, 11:00am - 12:00pm
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Abstract : Skillful, reliable and seamless climate information for the next 1-40 years is crucial for policy- and other decision makers to develop suitable planning strategies. This poses a challenge for the scientific community, which is split up into the prediction community (developing initialized predictions up to multi-annual time scales, e.g. 10 years), and the climate projection community (providing long-term projections). As predictions are initialized with the observed climate state at the start of the integration, they are often more skillful for lead times of a few years (depending on variable and region) compared to uninitialized climate projections, which however provide information up to centennial time scales. Thus, most useful climate information for the next 1-40 years would likely need to draw upon information from both sources.

Here, the ability to obtain valuable climate information beyond decadal time scales by constraining uninitialized projections using decadal predictions is assessed. The application of this framework to surface temperatures over the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre region, shows that the constrained uninitialized sub-ensemble has higher skill compared to the overall projection ensemble also beyond 10 years when information from decadal predictions is no longer available. Though showing the potential of such a constraining approach to obtain climate information for the near‐term future, its utility depends on the added value of initialization.
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